More of the same will not do for Scotland

About four million Scots will go to the polls on 7 May to select the next Scottish government.

While there will, as always, be changes and upsets, the current polling suggests that Scotland is unlikely to see a seismic political shift at this election. Predicting elections is always risky, and concerns have been raised about the limited polling data available for the Scottish elections. But we will give the polls the benefit of the doubt.

The SNP appears to be on course to return around 60 MSPs, just short of a majority but enough to comfortably form the next government. It is worth remembering that Scottish elections, with their Additional Member System known as D’Hondt, are designed to limit political dominance and ensure that votes are more proportionally reflected in the representation returned to Holyrood.

The image below shows the 2021 result. The bottom line represents the 2021 outcome as estimated under the new constituency boundaries, and the top line shows the current projection.

From Ballot Box Scotland - Ballot Box Scotland – Democracy in Detail

Regardless of who forms a government following the election, the country cannot afford another five years that look like the last five. Communities urgently need change. Scotland needs a national conversation about priorities, including but not limited to:

• Multiyear budgets for local authorities
• Funding priorities and taxation decisions, including where tax is raised and at what level to sustain services
• Implementation of the Minimum Income Guarantee to eradicate poverty
• Less new legislation, and higher standards for the laws that are proposed

Public policy can often feel distant from practice, but that is far from the case. Decisions taken in Holyrood flow directly into the social work and social care workforce, and legislation that increases statutory responsibilities for local services is not being matched with the resources required to deliver them. 

This must end. SASW is at the forefront of conversations about unrealistic legislation, lack of resources and the deep inequalities that are driving demand for services. 

The creation of the new National Social Work Agency and Scottish Social Work Partnership is just one such example and has given social work tools to tackle issues affecting the workforce and created a hugely stronger voice for social work in government. 

We need to see these tools well used in the months and years ahead. 

In addition, the mismatch between statutory obligations and available funding is shaping local taxation decisions. When councils cannot meet their responsibilities within their budgets, they offset cuts through council tax increases. 

Council tax rose sharply last year while services were reduced. The Scottish budget presented in January has all but guaranteed the same thing will happen again this year. This undermines trust between communities and public services. 

Put simply, people expect services to improve when taxation increases, but in reality, councils are often using these increases merely to mitigate the worst of the cuts. This is unsustainable and is eroding the social contract. 

What is needed from the next Scottish government is a far more radical, long-term approach. One that tackles social problems upstream rather than constantly responding to crises.

It means investing in preventive services, something the social work profession knows works and SASW has long advocated.

This comes with short-term cost to reap a longer-term benefit, which is how investment works. Doing so will lead to a healthier and more productive society, reducing the cost of crisis management substantially. 

The new government needs to be bold if it is to effect real change. We need a national debate about our country’s spending priorities. An American-style, small state where those without means are left to largely fend for themselves, increasingly in tent cities, would be a betrayal of the ideals that we built our society on post-World War Two. 

The thought of this should make anyone who believes in social justice shiver. 

Five years from now, we need to be tackling new problems and issues, not regurgitating the same solutions to the same problems from what will be 20 years of austerity and service reduction.

Members can support us by writing to their candidates and political parties. Our Election Hub has templates, information and links to our manifesto and other resources you can use. Scottish Parliament Election Hub 2026 | BASW